De Beers believes
that the supply of diamonds is running out over the long term, prompting
the
world's biggest miner of the gems to reduce production in an attempt to
extend
the life of its mines.
Assuming the move moderated production, rough diamond prices could
rise by at
least 5 per cent per year for the next five years, said Des Kilalea,
analyst at
RBC Capital Markets.
De Beers' move, which will see production plateau at about 40m carats
a year
from 2011 compared with 2008 production of 48m carats, anticipates new
Asian
demand accelerating the depletion of the world's existing diamond mines,
said
Gareth Penny, managing director.
For 20 years the industry has found no new diamond deposit to match
De Beers'
two biggest mines in Africa or the best Russian mines of Alrosa, the
other big
diamond producer.
"Do we want to ramp production back up to 48m carats, given the lack
of
availability in the future?" Mr Penny asked. "Diamonds are a treasure of
nature
that should be properly protected, because there will be less to sell.
The
reality is that supply cannot keep up, and that will become very
accentuated
over the next 15 years."
De Beers, while no longer a cartel, accounts for 40 per cent of
global rough
diamond sales. After a brutal year for the industry, which pushed De
Beers to a
net loss for 2009, the company stands to gain over the next five years
from what
Mr Penny calls "a natural supply-demand imbalance".
Diamond analysts also read the move as a precursor to the privately
held
group relisting, because it improves its production profile over the
long term.
"If the De Beers shareholders are planning to go public next year, this
might be
timed with the beginning of the renewed growth of consumer demand," said
Chaim
Even-Zohar, a Tel Aviv diamond consultant, who says?De Beers is certain
to
relist.
China's affluent urbanites are buying diamonds in droves and the
country's
share of the diamond jewellery market should double to 16 per cent by
2016, De
Beers said. The company has emerged from the downturn with a halved cost
base
and a new strategy centring on protecting the value of diamonds.
"We are not seeking to manipulate anything," Mr Penny said. "But
there is a
natural supply-demand imbalance that is leading to certain realities."
World rough diamond production last year was 124m
carats,
according to Mr Even-Zohar.
© The Financial Times Limited 2010